根据雷斯塔能源的研究显示，2022年，年度绿地资本支出突破了1000亿美元的门槛，并将在2023年再次突破，这是自2012年和2013年以来连续两年首次突破。该公司声称，海上石油和天然气行业将在“未来两年实现十年来最高的增长”，新项目投资将达到2140亿美元。
这家能源市场情报提供商概述称，由于全球化石燃料需求仍然强劲，各国都在寻找碳友好型生产来源，预计2023年和2024年，海上活动将占所有批准的常规碳氢化合物的68%，高于2015至2018年期间的40%。
就项目总数而言，雷斯塔强调，在未来两年，海上开发项目将占到所有批准项目的近一半，而2015至2018年仅为29%。
此外，新投资将对海上服务市场带来福音，2023年和2024年，供应链支出将增长16%，同比增长210亿美元，创十年新高。与此同时，海上钻机、船舶、海底和浮式生产储油和卸载(FPSO)活动都将蓬勃发展。
雷斯塔强调，全球主要驱动因素之一是中东海上活动的大规模扩张，由于沙特阿拉伯、卡塔尔和阿联酋的大型项目，该地区的海上上游支出将首次超过其他所有地区。
该地区的海上支出增长至少在未来三年内将继续，从今年的330亿美元增长到2025年的410亿美元。这些国家正在开发其庞大的海上资源，以满足日益增长的全球石油需求，并得到必要的资本和基础设施的支持，以赶超其他产油国。
雷斯塔能源供应链研究主管Audun Martinsen表示，海上油气生产不会消失，该行业现在可能比以往任何时候都更重要。作为一种低碳密集型的碳氢化合物开采方法，随着全球超级大国在推进能源转型的同时努力减少碳足迹，海上运营商和服务公司应该会在未来几年获得意外收获。
尽管中东处于领先地位，但雷斯塔能源解释道，南美、英国和巴西只是略微落后，因为英国和挪威在北海的投资预计在未来两年也将增加。因此，英国今年的离岸投资将增长30%，达到70亿美元，而挪威的投资将达到214亿美元，比2022年增长22%。
另一方面，巴西今年的上游投资预计将接近230亿美元，圭亚那的投资总额为70亿美元。在北美，美国和墨西哥的海上支出将分别超过175亿美元和73亿美元。
此外，巴西国有能源巨头巴西国家石油公司(Petrobras)计划在本世纪二十年代结束前在六个油田部署16艘FPSO，而圭亚那Stabroek区块的增长也将有助于区域扩张。在长期预测中，雷斯塔能源强调，中东地区的增长即使不会加速，也将继续，而南美地区的支出将在2025年放缓。
原文如下：
Offshore oil & gas set for growth with $214 bln of investments in the pipeline
With more than $200 billion of greenfield investments expected by 2025, the offshore oil and gas sector is expected to get back in the spotlight, according to Rystad Energy, an energy market intelligence group.
Rystad Energy’s research shows that annual greenfield capital expenditure (capex) broke the $100 billion threshold in 2022 and will break it again in 2023, which is the first breach for two straight years since 2012 and 2013. The company claims that the offshore oil and gas sector is set for “the highest growth in a decade in the next two years,” with $214 billion of new project investments lined up.
The energy market intelligence provider outlines that offshore activity is expected to account for 68 per cent of all sanctioned conventional hydrocarbons in 2023 and 2024, up from 40 per cent between 2015-2018, as global fossil fuel demand remains strong and countries look for carbon-friendly production sources.
In terms of total project count, Rystad highlights that offshore developments will make up almost half of all sanctioned projects in the next two years, up from just 29 per cent from 2015-2018.
Furthermore, the new investments will be a boon for the offshore services market, with supply chain spending to grow 16 per cent in 2023 and 2024, a decade-high year-on-year increase of $21 billion. In line with this, offshore rigs, vessels, subsea and floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) activity are all set to flourish.
Rystad underlines that one of the leading global drivers is the sizable expansion of offshore activities in the Middle East, as offshore upstream spending in the region will surpass all others for the first time, lifted by mammoth projects in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE.
The region’s offshore spending growth looks set to continue at least for the next three years, growing from $33 billion this year to $41 billion in 2025. Rystad underscores that these countries are tapping into their vast offshore resources to meet rising global oil demand, backed by the necessary capital and infrastructure to outpace other producers.
Audun Martinsen, head of supply chain research at Rystad Energy, remarked: “Offshore oil and gas production isn’t going anywhere, and the sector matters now possibly more than ever. As one of the lower carbon-intensive methods of extracting hydrocarbons, offshore operators and service companies should expect a windfall in the coming years as global superpowers try to reduce their carbon footprint while advancing the energy transition.”
Even though the Middle East is leading the way, Rystad explains that South America, the UK and Brazil are just slightly behind, as investments in the North Sea from the UK and Norway are also expected to rise in the next two years. As a result, the UK’s offshore spending is set to jump 30 per cent this year to $7 billion, while Norwegian investments will hit $21.4 billion, an increase of 22 per cent over 2022.
On the other hand, Brazilian upstream spending is projected to approach $23 billion this year, with Guyana investments totalling $7 billion. In North America, spending on offshore in the U.S. will top $17.5 billion and $7.3 billion in Mexico.
Moreover, Brazil’s state-owned energy giant Petrobras plans to deploy 16 FPSOs across six fields before the end of this decade, while growth in the Guyanese Stabroek Block will also contribute to regional expansion. In long-term forecasts, Rystad Energy emphasizes that Middle Eastern growth is set to continue, if not accelerate, while South American spending will slow in 2025.
